Kosmos Follows Crude Prices Higher while Coinbase Follows Bitcoin Lower
Last week, the Opportunity Equity Strategy’s representative account gained 1.91%, outperforming the S&P 500’s -0.45% fall. (Exhibit 1). The strategy ended the week up 1.72% YTD, 67 basis points ahead of the S&P 500.Exhibit 1: Performance of Opportunity Equity Representative Account Net of Fees, Versus S&P 500, Through 1/3/251
| Time Period | Opportunity Equity Representative Account | S&P 500 |
| Last Week (12/27 - 1/3) | 1.91% | -0.45% |
| MTD | 1.72% | 1.05% |
| QTD | 1.72% | 1.05% |
| YTD | 1.72% | 1.05% |
| 1 Year | 33.18% | 28.06% |
| 5 Year | 9.33% | 14.73% |
| 10 Year | 9.21% | 13.22% |
| Inception (annualized since 6/26/00) | 7.82% | 7.92% |
Source: Bloomberg, Patient Capital Management.
Kosmos Energy Ltd.(KOS) rose through the 50-day moving average after announcing first gas production at their Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) LNG project. Goldman Sachs reiterated their expectations Kosmos will generate $379M in free cash flow (FCF) during 2025 (21% yield) and $559M in 2026 (31% yield). Stifel believes this is a significant milestone and restated their NAV estimate of $8.34, a 117% premium over Friday’s close.
Precigen, Inc. (PGEN) jumped through the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after submitting their Biologics License Application (BLA) for PRGN-2012, the company’s recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) gene therapy. If PRGN-2012 gets approved, it would become the first FDA-approved therapy for RRP.
Nvidia Corp (NVDA) rose through the 50-day moving average. Loop Capital put out a bullish report on the company. They believe Nvidia has built an incredible foundation over the past ten years and still possesses an underappreciated moat. Loop is optimistic Nvidia can hold leadership positions in accelerated compute, generative AI, and inference. They expect this will be greater than a $2T total addressable market.
Seadrill Limited (SDRL) followed Brent’s 3.15% move higher.
Exhibit 2: Significant2 Contributors to Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 12/27/24 - 1/3/25
| Name | Type | Net Return |
| New Security* | Derivative | N/A |
| Kosmos Energy Ltd. | Equity | 18.1% |
| Precigen, Inc. | Equity | 65.2% |
| Nvidia Corp | Equity | 5.4% |
| Seadrill Limited | Equity | 5.8% |
Source: Patient Capital Management. See below for additional information.
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) fell after Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgraded the name from “market perform” to “underperform”.
General Motors Co (GM) fell through the 50-day moving average. Bernstein forecasts 36.4% of automobiles sold domestically in 2030 will either be a battery electric vehicle (BEV) or plugin hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV).
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) fell on limited news.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) fell through the 50-day moving average. Citi increased their price target from $76 to $77 (31% upside).
Exhibit 3: Significant2 Detractors from Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 12/27/24 - 1/3/25
| Name | Type | Net Return |
| New Security* | Equity | -25.5% |
| SoFi Technologies, Inc. | Equity | -7.1% |
| General Motors Co | Equity | -4.6% |
| United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Equity | -4.0% |
| Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Equity | -3.7% |
Source: Patient Capital Management. See below for additional information.
As of prior week's market close unless otherwise stated.
1The performance figures for the representative Opportunity Equity account reflect the deduction investment management fees and certain other expenses. Returns greater than 1 year are annualized.
Patient Capital Management, LLC completed its acquisition of the Opportunity Equity Strategy from Miller Value Partners, LLC on May 26, 2023. Patient Capital Management served as the investment adviser to the Opportunity Equity Strategy for the majority of the week referenced herein. Additionally, prior versions of this weekly blog posting refer to Miller Value Partners as investment adviser to the Opportunity Equity Strategy.
For additional information about Opportunity Equity Strategy performance, please click on the Opportunity Equity Strategy Composite Performance Disclosure. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
2Significant Contributors and Detractors are based on holdings that had the greatest effect on representative account performance for the week. Holdings that have been in the portfolio since the end of the most recent calendar quarter are identified by name. The net return shown above for each individual security represents the change in market price of the security during the week, according to a third-party pricing service, or for the partial period held in the portfolio during the week. Net returns also include any purchases or sales that were made during the week. For information on how Contributor/Detractor data were calculated and a list showing the contribution to the Strategy’s weekly performance of each investment held at such quarter end, contact us.
Any views expressed are subject to change at any time, and Patient Capital Management disclaims any responsibility to update such views. There is no guarantee that market trends discussed herein will continue. The information presented should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security and should not be relied upon as investment advice. It should not be assumed that any purchase or sale decisions will be profitable or will equal the performance of any security mentioned. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee dividends will be paid or continued. References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only. Portfolio composition is shown as of a point in time and is subject to change without notice. Content may not be reprinted, republished or used in any manner without written consent from Patient Capital Management.
©2024 Patient Capital Management, LLC
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