Nvidia Climbs on Hyperscaler Capex Outlook while Crocs Slides on Weak Guidance
Last week, the Opportunity Equity Strategy’s representative account gained 1.55%, underperforming the S&P 500’s 2.44% rise. (Exhibit 1). The strategy ended the week up 8.19% YTD, 128 basis points behind the S&P 500.Exhibit 1: Performance of Opportunity Equity Representative Account Net of Fees, Versus S&P 500, Through 8/8/251
| Time Period | Opportunity Equity Representative Account | S&P 500 |
| Last Week (8/1- 8/8) | 1.55% | 2.44% |
| MTD | -2.22% | 0.81% |
| QTD | 3.24% | 3.07% |
| YTD | 8.19% | 9.47% |
| 1 Year | 30.83% | 21.73% |
| 5 Year | 9.33% | 15.50% |
| 10 Year | 8.71% | 13.89% |
| Inception (annualized since 6/26/00) | 7.89% | 8.07% |
Source: Bloomberg, Patient Capital Management.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) rose on limited news.
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) reached a new all-time high after Goldman Sachs raised its price target from $185 to $200 (9% upside). Goldman increased its data center revenue forecast by 8% following stronger than expected capex guidance from hyperscalers in recent Q2 earnings reports.
UBS Group AG (UBS) reached a new all-time high last Friday. RBC increased their price target from $35.78 to $39.03 (-1% downside). RBC sees potential for a softening in Swiss capital requirements and highlighted positive trends in loan growth, deposit growth, and client engagement.
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) rebounded through its 50-day moving average after last week’s selloff, which was driven by slower-than-expected AWS revenue growth.
JP Morgan lowered their price target on UnitedHealth Group (UNH) from $418 to $310 (24% upside) and maintained their overweight rating.
Exhibit 2: Significant2 Contributors to Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 8/1/25 - 8/8/2025
| Name | Type | Net Return |
| Alphabet Inc. | Equity | 6.5% |
| Nvidia Corp | Equity | 5.2% |
| UBS Group AG | Equity | 7.8% |
| Amazon.com, Inc. | Equity | 3.7% |
| UnitedHealth Group | Equity | 5.4% |
Source: Patient Capital Management. See below for additional information.
Crocs, Inc. (CROX) reached a new 52-week low after announcing an earnings beat, but lower than expected 3Q guidance. The company reported revenue of $1,150M vs. $977M expected and adjusted EPS of $4.23 vs. $2.53 expected. Crocs guided for 3Q25 revenue between $945M - $967M versus $1,065M expected and operating margins between 18% - 19% versus 23% expected. In 2Q25, the company repurchased 1.3M shares (2% shares out) and still has $1.1B left on their buyback authorization, equivalent to 26% of the current market cap. KeyBanc cut its price target from $120 to $95 (26% upside) on near-term uncertainty but remained bullish long-term, citing improving international trends and a compelling 6.6x FY25 P/E vs. a peer group average of 19x.
Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY) fell through the 100-day and 200-day moving averages on limited news.
IAC Inc. (IAC) broke below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages following mixed earnings results and lowered FY25 guidance. Revenue missed at $587M vs. $601M expected, while EPS surprised at $2.57 vs. a loss of $0.36 expected. The revenue miss was primarily driven by the company’s search business, coming in at $62M vs. $78M expected. IAC lowered its Dotdash Meredith segment’s FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance from $340M to $335M at the midpoint. Truist lowered their price target from $61 to $57 (67% upside) and maintained their buy rating. Truist considers the company “deeply undervalued” and highlighted management’s strong focus on capital allocation, prioritizing share repurchases, strategic M&A, and opportunistic divestitures.
Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) fell on an earnings and production miss. The company posted revenue of $394M vs. $402M expected, EBITDA of $145M vs. $189M expected, and production of 63,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) versus 69,300 boe/d expected. Additionally, the company issued a below consensus FY25 production exit rate 65,000 – 70,000 boe/d versus 70,000 boe/d expected. Despite the weaker quarter, Stifel maintained its $7 price target (300% upside), projecting $293M in free cash flow (FCF) by 2027, a 36% FCF yield.
Wolfe Research raised their price target on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) from $22 to $29 (21% upside).
Exhibit 3: Significant2 Detractors from Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 8/1/2025 - 8/8/2025
| Name | Type | Net Return |
| Crocs, Inc. | Equity | -21.1% |
| Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. | Equity | -15.0% |
| IAC Inc. | Equity | -11.6% |
| Kosmos Energy Ltd. | Equity | -10.3% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | Equity | -2.0% |
Source: Patient Capital Management. See below for additional information.
As of prior week's market close unless otherwise stated.
1The performance figures for the representative Opportunity Equity account reflect the deduction investment management fees and certain other expenses. Returns greater than 1 year are annualized.
For additional information about Opportunity Equity Strategy performance, please click on the Opportunity Equity Strategy Composite Performance Disclosure. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
2Significant Contributors and Detractors are based on holdings that had the greatest effect on representative account performance for the week. Holdings that have been in the portfolio since the end of the most recent calendar quarter are identified by name. The net return shown above for each individual security represents the change in market price of the security during the week, according to a third-party pricing service, or for the partial period held in the portfolio during the week. Net returns also include any purchases or sales that were made during the week. For information on how Contributor/Detractor data were calculated and a list showing the contribution to the Strategy’s weekly performance of each investment held at such quarter end, contact us.
Any views expressed are subject to change at any time, and Patient Capital Management disclaims any responsibility to update such views. There is no guarantee that market trends discussed herein will continue. The information presented should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security and should not be relied upon as investment advice. It should not be assumed that any purchase or sale decisions will be profitable or will equal the performance of any security mentioned. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee dividends will be paid or continued. References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only. Portfolio composition is shown as of a point in time and is subject to change without notice. Content may not be reprinted, republished or used in any manner without written consent from Patient Capital Management.
©2025 Patient Capital Management, LLC
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