Opportunity Equity Weekly Update for 10/31/2025 – 11/07/2025

Expedia Jumps on a Beat and Raise While Norwegian Slides on a Weak Guide

Last week, the Opportunity Equity Strategy’s representative account fell -2.58%, underperforming the S&P 500’s -1.61% decline. (Exhibit 1). The strategy ended the week up 20.29% YTD, 466 basis points ahead of the S&P 500.

Exhibit 1: Performance of Opportunity Equity Representative Account Net of Fees, Versus S&P 500, Through 11/07/25¹

Time Period	Opportunity Equity Representative Account	S&P 500
Last Week (10/31- 11/07)	-2.58%	-1.61%
MTD	-2.58%	-1.61%
QTD	0.18%	0.69%
YTD	20.29%	15.63%
1 Year	18.49%	14.13%
5 Year	9.94%	15.60%
10 Year	10.06%	14.33%
Inception (annualized since 6/26/00)	8.27%	8.22%

Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) hit a new all-time high following a strong earnings beat and guidance raise. The company reported revenue of $4.4B vs. $4.3B expected, EPS of $7.33 vs. $6.32, and lifted FY25 revenue growth guidance from 3%-5% y/y to 6%-7% y/y. On a y/y basis, Expedia accelerated revenue by 3% and expanded EBITDA margins by 200bps. The company reported 108.2M booked room nights, up 11% y/y, outpacing Bookings.com (BKNG) and Airbnb (ABNB) at 8% and 9%, respectively. Expedia repurchased 2.3M shares of common stock during the quarter (2% of shares outstanding), bringing their trailing three-year total to 44M or roughly 22% of shares outstanding net of dilution. Evercore reiterated the name as one of their favorite large cap ideas and increased their price target from $280 to $350 (36% upside). 

Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) reached a 52-week high after beating expectations and raising guidance. The company posted total portfolio receipts of $814M vs. $758M expected and adjusted EPS of $1.17 vs. $0.99 expected. RPRX raised FY25 portfolio receipts guidance to $3.2-$3.25B, up 15% y/y at the midpoint. The company continued to buy back shares, retiring 1% of shares during the quarter and 6% over the past year. Morningstar increased their price target from $47 to $51 (32% upside), and flagged RPRX as undervalued, while Morgan Stanley increased their price target from $54 to $56 (45% upside).

IAC Inc. (IAC) rose despite reporting results below Street expectations, with revenue of $590M vs. $601M expected and EBITDA of $29M vs. $51M expected. The People’s Inc. segment maintained strong momentum in digital revenue, growing 9% y/y and reaching the upper end of management’s previously guided 7–9% range. It also announced a new partnership with Microsoft and a 6% reduction in force (RIF), which is expected to deliver $65M in run-rate savings. Truist lowered their price target from $57 to $52 (56% upside), but maintained their buy rating, emphasizing that shares remain deeply undervalued at these prices. The company is being opportunistic at these levels, retiring $100M in common stock during the quarter, bringing its year-to-date total to $300M, or roughly 8% of the company.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) initially sold off following a bomb threat on a flight at Reagan National Airport but rebounded later in the week despite ongoing air traffic control staffing concerns.

General Motors Co (GM) climbed to a new all-time high following reports that Ford is considering discontinuing the electric F-150.

Exhibit 2: Significant² Contributors to Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 10/31/25 - 11/07/2025

Name	Type	Net Return
Expedia Group, Inc.	Equity	17.4%
Royalty Pharma plc	Equity	2.7%
IAC Inc.	Equity	3.1%
United Airlines Holdings, Inc.	Equity	3.6%
General Motors Co	Equity	2.0%

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) slid beneath its 200-day moving average after reporting slightly weaker-than-expected results and guidance. The company posted revenue of $2.9B vs. $3.0B expected and inline EBITDA of $1B. Norwegian noted that its 12-month forward bookings remain within the targeted range, but guided for a 4Q25 occupancy rate of 101.9%, below the previously guided 104.3%-104.8%, though still ~100bps higher y/y. Additionally, net cruise costs (NCC) are now expected to rise 50bps y/y in 4Q, slightly above prior implied guidance. Weaker than expected occupancy rates, higher 4Q NCC, and a softer Royal Caribbean print the prior week are all weighing on shares. J.P. Morgan lowered their price target from $43 to $40 (110% upside) but maintained their overweight rating.

Shares of Nvidia Corp (NVDA) fell after Michael Burry’s hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, disclosed a $187M bet in put options. Burry is best known for predicting the 2008 housing crash.

Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) fell below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages despite strong earnings. The company delivered revenue of $363M (+85% y/y) vs. $346M expected, with its Genomics segment up 117% y/y and Data segment up 26% y/y. Additionally, Tempus generated positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time in its history. Needham raised its price target on Tempus from $70 to $100 (40% upside), citing an estimated $200B TAM that could support a long-term CAGR above 30%.

Seadrill Limited (SDRL) broke below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages after posting mixed earnings. Revenue came in at $363M vs. $346M expected and EBITDA at $86M vs. $95M expected. The company raised FY25 revenue guidance from $1,350M to $1,375M at the midpoint and tightened EBITDA guidance from $320 - $380M to $330 - $360M. SDRL took their CAPEX guidance to the high end of their previously guided range but said maintenance spending is expected to decline in 2026. The company secured six new contracts across five rigs, adding over $300M to its backlog and bringing total contracted backlog to approximately $2.5B. Citi maintained their $42 price target (47% upside).

UnitedHealth Group  (UHNH) continued to move lower despite announcing a beat and raise the week prior.

Exhibit 3: Significant² Detractors from Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 10/31/2025 - 11/07/2025

Name	Type	Net Return
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.	Equity	-14.5%
Nvidia Corp	Equity	-7.1%
Tempus AI, Inc.	Equity	-20.4%
Seadrill Limited	Equity	-9.7%
UnitedHealth Group	Equity	-5.1%

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As of prior week's market close unless otherwise stated.

¹The performance figures for the representative Opportunity Equity account reflect the deduction investment management fees and certain other expenses. Returns greater than 1 year are annualized.

For additional information about Opportunity Equity Strategy performance, please click on the Opportunity Equity Strategy Composite Performance Disclosure. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

²Significant Contributors and Detractors are based on holdings that had the greatest effect on representative account performance for the week. Holdings that have been in the portfolio since the end of the most recent calendar quarter are identified by name. The net return shown above for each individual security represents the change in market price of the security during the week, according to a third-party pricing service, or for the partial period held in the portfolio during the week.  Net returns also include any purchases or sales that were made during the week. For information on how Contributor/Detractor data were calculated and a list showing the contribution to the Strategy’s weekly performance of each investment held at such quarter end, contact us. 

Any views expressed are subject to change at any time, and Patient Capital Management disclaims any responsibility to update such views. There is no guarantee that market trends discussed herein will continue. The information presented should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security and should not be relied upon as investment advice. It should not be assumed that any purchase or sale decisions will be profitable or will equal the performance of any security mentioned. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee dividends will be paid or continued. References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only. Portfolio composition is shown as of a point in time and is subject to change without notice. Content may not be reprinted, republished or used in any manner without written consent from Patient Capital Management. 

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