back to news & insights


Mar 21, 2023

Opportunity Equity Update for Week Ended 3/17/23

William Keenan

Coinbase Follows Bitcoin Prices Higher while Travel Names Fall on Fears of Recession

Last week, the Opportunity Equity Strategy's representative account declined -3.09%, underperforming the S&P 500’s 1.47% rise. (Exhibit 1). The strategy ended the week up 3.29% YTD, 88 basis points ahead of the S&P 500.

Exhibit 1: Performance of Opportunity Equity Representative Account Net of Fees, Versus S&P 500, Through 3/17/231

Time Period Opportunity Equity Representative Account S&P 500
Last Week (3/10 - 3/17) -3.09% 1.47%
MTD -10.47% -1.23%
QTD 3.29% 2.41%
YTD 3.29% 2.41%
1 Year -25.91% -9.69%
5 Year 1.05% 9.22%
10 Year 7.87% 11.77%
Inception (annualized since 6/26/00) 5.85% 6.47%

Source: Bloomberg, Miller Value Partners. Visit the Strategy page for Opportunity Equity performance through the most current month end period.

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) rose above the 50 and 200-day moving averages following bitcoin prices higher throughout the week. Oppenheimer lowered its price target to $70 from $84 (-9% downside).

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) rose above the 50 and 100-day moving averages. The company raised the price of YouTube TV to $72.99 per month from $64.99 per month, citing high content costs. Exane BNP Paribas upgraded the name from neutral to outperform, with a $123 price target (20% upside)., Inc. (AMZN) rose through the 50 and 100-day moving averages. The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon and Rivian are in talks to end their delivery van exclusivity agreement, while Amazon remain committed to buying 100,000 vehicles from Rivian by 2030. JP Morgan lowered its price target to $135 from $142 (34% upside).

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) rose after the company announced an additional 10,000 worker reduction while closing 5,000 open positions. Since November, the company has eliminated 25% of its workforce, in addition, the company lowered their expense guidance to a range of $86-92B (from $89-95B). While raising its restructuring costs to $3-5B from $1B previously. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US is threatening to ban Tik Tok, a key rival of Meta’s Instagram Reels, if the application’s Chinese national owners do not sell their stakes. Wells Fargo raised its price target to $280 from $200 (39% upside), while Truist raised its price target to $230 from $215 (14% upside).

Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. (KRTX) rose on limited news.

Exhibit 2: Significant2 Contributors to Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 3/10/23 - 3/17/23

Name Type Net Return
Coinbase Global, Inc. Equity 40.3%
Alphabet Inc. Equity 12.1%, Inc. Equity 9.1%
Meta Platforms, Inc. Equity 9.0%
Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. Equity 7.0%

Source: Miller Value Partners. See below for additional information.

OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) fell through the 200-day moving average after the company reported February trust data that showed a sequential decrease in both net charge-offs and delinquencies, though the shares continue to be under pressure from ongoing liquidity concerns in the broader financials sector. Net charge-offs fell -19bps M/M to 3.80%, while delinquencies of 2.88% fell -24bps sequentially, primarily reflecting a -9bp decrease in early-stage delinquencies and a -13bp decrease in late-stage delinquencies. Wells Fargo highlighted that the early-stage delinquencies decline was a bit less than the typical seasonal patterns seen in February.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) fell through the 50 and 100-day moving averages after the company lowered its Q1 EPS guidance of $0.50-$1.00 to a loss of $0.60-$1.00 primarily due to a shift in the timing of the accrual expense related to a potential new pilot contract, but also due to higher expected fuel costs partially offset by higher revenue. United reiterated its full-year pretax margin target of 9% and EPS of $10-$12. Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) fell through the 100 and 200-day moving averages in sympathy despite reiterating its Q1 outlook of 14-17% revenue growth above 2019 levels, a 4-6% operating margin, and $0.15-$0.40 in EPS.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) fell on continued recession fears.

Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) followed commodity prices lower over the course of the week. JP Morgan lowered its price target to $53 from $59 (51% upside).

Exhibit 3: Significant2 Detractors from Opportunity Equity Representative Account Performance, 3/10/23 - 3/17/23

Name Type Net Return
OneMain Holdings, Inc. Equity -11.5%
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Equity -15.6%
Delta Air Lines, Inc. Equity -11.5%
Ovintiv Inc. Equity -12.4%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Equity -10.5%

Source: Miller Value Partners. See below for additional information.

Check out the Income Strategy weekly Update. Click to Read.

As of prior week's market close unless otherwise stated.

1The performance figures for the representative Opportunity Equity account reflect the deduction investment management fees and certain other expenses. Returns greater than 1 year are annualized.

For additional information about Opportunity Equity Strategy performance, please click on the Opportunity Equity Strategy Composite Performance Disclosure. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2Significant Contributors and Detractors are based on holdings that had the greatest effect on representative account performance for the week. Holdings that have been in the portfolio since the end of the most recent calendar quarter are identified by name. The net return shown above for each individual security represents the change in market price of the security during the week, according to a third-party pricing service, or for the partial period held in the portfolio during the week.  Net returns also include any purchases or sales that were made during the week. For information on how Contributor/Detractor data were calculated and a list showing the contribution to the Strategy’s weekly performance of each investment held at such quarter end, contact us.

Any views expressed are subject to change at any time, and Miller Value Partners disclaims any responsibility to update such views. There is no guarantee that market trends discussed herein will continue. The information presented should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security and should not be relied upon as investment advice. It should not be assumed that any purchase or sale decisions will be profitable or will equal the performance of any security mentioned. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is no guarantee dividends will be paid or continued. References to specific securities are for illustrative purposes only. Portfolio composition is shown as of a point in time and is subject to change without notice. Content may not be reprinted, republished or used in any manner without written consent from Miller Value Partners. 

©2023 Miller Value Partners, LLC