“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market.”
― Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Good news from our friends at Birinyi Research. In previous instances where the market was up as much as it was in the first two months of the year, the rest of the year experienced gains (11.9% on average). Birinyi noted that February was the 7th strongest on record since World War II, with 9 out of the top 10 strongest occurring during a bull market. In previous years since 1945 when the market was up at least 6% in the first two months, it gained an average of 11.9% through the remainder of the year. This phenomenon occurred in 16 out of 17 years, or 94% of the time. With all due caveats of small sample sizes and anything can happen, history suggests a positive base rate of gains from here.
Patient Capital Management received exclusive permissions from Birinyi Associates, Inc. to share the above piece.
The views expressed in this commentary reflect those of Patient Capital Management analyst(s) as of the date of the commentary. Any views are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions, and Patient Capital Management disclaims any responsibility to update such views. The information presented should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security and should not be relied upon as investment advice. It should not be assumed that any purchase or sale decisions will be profitable or will equal the performance of any security mentioned. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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